Introduction: The domestic economy has been severely affected by the epidemic, especially the foreign trade industry. This article deeply analyzes the impact of the epidemic on China’s foreign trade from the current international trade and China’s foreign trade status, and the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic on international trade.
The current status of international trade and China’s foreign trade!
(1) In 2019, the world economic growth will decline, and global international trade will shrink
In 2019, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its forecast for the global economic growth rate for the year four times a year. The forecast value continued to drop from 3.7% at the beginning of the year to 3.0% in October. According to the latest “Global Economic Outlook” issued by the IMF in January 2020, its final estimate of the global economic growth rate in 2019 is only 2.9%. In 2019, the World Bank released a report stating that the shrinking global trade volume is one reason for the global economic slowdown. According to data from the World Trade Organization (WTO), many indicators closely related to the status and trends of global trade have all declined in 2019. Its commodity trade index was less than 100 for four consecutive quarters, below the trend level. Some sub-indices were close to or below the lowest level since the 2008 financial crisis. This shows a sharp slowdown in global trade, weak growth, and overall weakness.
(2) my country’s foreign trade has risen steadily
In the context of a significant increase in internal and external risks and challenges, my country’s foreign trade in 2019 has shown an overall stable and stable improvement in quality. According to customs statistics, in 2019, the total value of my country’s import and export of goods trade was 31.54 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.4% over 2018. Among them, exports were 17.23 trillion yuan, an increase of 5%; imports were 14.31 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.6%; the trade surplus was 2.92 trillion yuan, increasing 25.4%. However, if we consider the impact of the volatility of the RMB against the US dollar, especially in the context of the long-term and complex Sino-US trade frictions, my country’s foreign trade development will be under greater pressure in the future.
(3) The signing of the first phase of the China-US economic and trade agreement brings positive expectations for the growth of international trade
In recent years, changes in the international trade environment have been an important factor affecting the growth of international trade. Due to the rise of unilateralism and protectionism in some countries, the uncertainty of global economic policies characterized by tariff increases has increased, and trade frictions have continued to expand and escalate among major economies. Together, these changes have led to a significant slowdown in global trade. In January 2020, the official signing of the first phase of the China-US economic and trade agreement had injected stability into China and the United States and the world economy, which is conducive to enhancing global market confidence, stabilizing market expectations, and creating a good environment for normal international trade activities.